You think the Republicans would rather face Obama? Seems unlikely. For all their "hold my nose to vote for McCain" rhetoric, the hard-right social conservatives will still vote for McCain in the fall. And the hard-left will vote for either Clinton or Obama.
So, as much as both ends of the spectrum belittle and begrudge the middle and the independents, it is that group that will choose our next President. As has always been the case.
And all evidence I've seen indicates that that middle group likes Obama a Lot more than they like Clinton. They also like McCain more than Clinton. In a McCain v. Obama election, the middle group splits and some Republicans might not vote simply because they actually like Obama and dislike McCain. In a Clinton v. McCain election I think a large percentage of the middle group votes for McCain and the hard-right base of the Republicans DO all vote for McCain simply because they despise the Clintons.
If I'm John McCain I am hoping that Clinton somehow manages to turn the momentum around and is the Democratic nominee. She's much easier to beat for him in my estimation.
But I hope that d/n happen. Obama is a much better candidate.
I still shovel, btw. Just not for the big snows-- I have a fairly massive driveway. Plus, the snow blower really is cool-- more POWER!
LOL. D/n see the Moria comment before posting the above. I watched some of The Return of the King on TV last night. Very good, not great. Definitely loses something in translation to the smaller screen. The first movie was definitely the best of the three. Possibly because it was the first and it just blew my mind, possibly because it does not rely on massive battle CGI at all.
Possibly because it has more Gandalf and is truer to the book.
You think a snow blower could take out a Balrog? Probably not.
I do think the Republicans would rather face Obama for one reason:
The Close.
Clinton are Closers. John Kerry was not. Al Gore was not. Karl Rove is a Closer, and a cut throat one.
Obama's rhetoric is going to tend to get in the way of actually getting the job done, and in the last twenty years, the only Dems who have demonstrated that they can do it are the Clintons.
Polls mean little, the last several primaries have demonstrated that if the last Preznitial didn't. 'Swing Voters' are largely mythological, and may as well be called Low Information Voters who will decide based on what their TeeVee tells them.
The Repubs are concerned with a Closer. Look at how they trashed McCain in teh last primary; he's learned his lesson and will be happy to play that from the other side this time out. The Clintons won't take it, but Obama might.
Look, I don't have a horse in this race (other than eventually I will vote for one or the other). Both candidates have negatives to me, both for the election and after. You react viscerally to the Clintons, as do many folks; she's turned that to her advantage. But I want to see them as clearly as I can and right now, I see the right trying to put down the bigger threat.
I think this election won't come down to the Mythical Middle, but will instead be turned by Turnout. This is where Obama has been able to turn a clear advantage in getting young people and first time voters out there. But the primaries are showing that the Dems are ultra-motivated this year, while the Republicans are lackluster. If the Dem candidate can corral all these voters, even the typical voter suppression efforts will be overwhelmed.
But of course, I'm not a TV pundit, so what do I know? YMMV.
More like this: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2008/02/day-of-infamy-in-senate-why-we-need.html
At least Obama is willing to go on the record as voting in favor of Law, rather than supporting an unearned and unnecessary telecom immunity clause... Clinton did not vote, and Herb Kohl (Nobody's Senator but AT&T's) voted against it.
[Unnecessary immunity, that is unless you're primarily concerned with providing another 'National Secrets' firewall against any investigsations that would uncover incontrovertible evidence of lawbreaking within the White House.]
I shovel the extremely old-fashioned way - I wait for it to melt. Which is why I've spent most of the winter trapped inside my house watching TV pundits, confirming once again I'd get better insight from a geode.
Tired of the snow now. No sun, except when it is Minus One Bazillion. Blech.
ReplyDeleteBlech. I'm even getting sick of snow blowing, and I really kind of enjoy snow blowing. But enough already.
Blech I say.
At least the Clintons are trailing. That's a very good thing, I think. Go B.O.!
Hmm... maybe I better stick with Yes We Can.
I think it is telling that the Republican Establishment is already aggressively trashing Clinton.
ReplyDeleteYou can tell who they'd prefer to face in the General.
Nick, I shovel the old fashioned way, by hand.
ReplyDeleteFear Me.
Nick, I fear we may have to take the path that leads through Moria.
ReplyDeleteYou think the Republicans would rather face Obama? Seems unlikely. For all their "hold my nose to vote for McCain" rhetoric, the hard-right social conservatives will still vote for McCain in the fall. And the hard-left will vote for either Clinton or Obama.
ReplyDeleteSo, as much as both ends of the spectrum belittle and begrudge the middle and the independents, it is that group that will choose our next President. As has always been the case.
And all evidence I've seen indicates that that middle group likes Obama a Lot more than they like Clinton. They also like McCain more than Clinton. In a McCain v. Obama election, the middle group splits and some Republicans might not vote simply because they actually like Obama and dislike McCain. In a Clinton v. McCain election I think a large percentage of the middle group votes for McCain and the hard-right base of the Republicans DO all vote for McCain simply because they despise the Clintons.
If I'm John McCain I am hoping that Clinton somehow manages to turn the momentum around and is the Democratic nominee. She's much easier to beat for him in my estimation.
But I hope that d/n happen. Obama is a much better candidate.
I still shovel, btw. Just not for the big snows-- I have a fairly massive driveway. Plus, the snow blower really is cool-- more POWER!
LOL. D/n see the Moria comment before posting the above. I watched some of The Return of the King on TV last night. Very good, not great. Definitely loses something in translation to the smaller screen. The first movie was definitely the best of the three. Possibly because it was the first and it just blew my mind, possibly because it does not rely on massive battle CGI at all.
ReplyDeletePossibly because it has more Gandalf and is truer to the book.
You think a snow blower could take out a Balrog? Probably not.
I do think the Republicans would rather face Obama for one reason:
ReplyDeleteThe Close.
Clinton are Closers. John Kerry was not. Al Gore was not. Karl Rove is a Closer, and a cut throat one.
Obama's rhetoric is going to tend to get in the way of actually getting the job done, and in the last twenty years, the only Dems who have demonstrated that they can do it are the Clintons.
Polls mean little, the last several primaries have demonstrated that if the last Preznitial didn't. 'Swing Voters' are largely mythological, and may as well be called Low Information Voters who will decide based on what their TeeVee tells them.
The Repubs are concerned with a Closer. Look at how they trashed McCain in teh last primary; he's learned his lesson and will be happy to play that from the other side this time out. The Clintons won't take it, but Obama might.
Look, I don't have a horse in this race (other than eventually I will vote for one or the other). Both candidates have negatives to me, both for the election and after. You react viscerally to the Clintons, as do many folks; she's turned that to her advantage. But I want to see them as clearly as I can and right now, I see the right trying to put down the bigger threat.
I think this election won't come down to the Mythical Middle, but will instead be turned by Turnout. This is where Obama has been able to turn a clear advantage in getting young people and first time voters out there. But the primaries are showing that the Dems are ultra-motivated this year, while the Republicans are lackluster. If the Dem candidate can corral all these voters, even the typical voter suppression efforts will be overwhelmed.
But of course, I'm not a TV pundit, so what do I know? YMMV.
More like this: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2008/02/day-of-infamy-in-senate-why-we-need.html
ReplyDeleteAt least Obama is willing to go on the record as voting in favor of Law, rather than supporting an unearned and unnecessary telecom immunity clause... Clinton did not vote, and Herb Kohl (Nobody's Senator but AT&T's) voted against it.
[Unnecessary immunity, that is unless you're primarily concerned with providing another 'National Secrets' firewall against any investigsations that would uncover incontrovertible evidence of lawbreaking within the White House.]
Points in Obama's favor, I must say.
I shovel the extremely old-fashioned way - I wait for it to melt. Which is why I've spent most of the winter trapped inside my house watching TV pundits, confirming once again I'd get better insight from a geode.
ReplyDeleteSnag, you have three children. Don't you leash them together and make your own snowblower?
ReplyDeleteI use one of these.
ReplyDeleteSnag, you have three children. Don't you leash them together and make your own snowblower?
ReplyDeleteNo, but that's how I get to work.
I really thought that teh filthbot would be more prominent in a thread about snowblowing.
ReplyDeleteI didn't have the strength...
ReplyDeleteJust don't forget the chapstick....
ReplyDelete(.... stepping in for the filthbot.)
I don't think Chapstick would help with the ice cream headache aspect...
ReplyDelete