Presented with little comment, an electoral projection distribution chart from fivethirtyeight.com:
This shows the data representing an Obama win in OVER 85% OF THE SIMULATIONS.
Now, I am the first to admit that if anyone can punt this, it's the Democrats. Long tradition, etc. I also have little interest, right now, in a discussion on Obama's right-centrist positions. As mikey used to point out at Sadly, No, these are the choices we HAVE, regardless of what we as individuals want. stepping back from a precipice may need to involve small steps at first.
But it seems that once America started paying a little attention to the insanity that is represented on the other side, as well as realizing that economic disaster looms for everyone that includes YOU Joe Sixpack, the balance is shifting. Just a bit.
I find a glimmer of hope in that. Not a mind-altering blinding pollyannish hope; just the beginnings of a belief that America, as a concept and a country, might survive Bush/Cheney.
But the VP debate is tonight, and if AG can be distracted from her pursuit of Doctor Hotties and alcohol, we might even be live cob logging the debacle. Stay tuned.
Obama currently has a 7 point national lead. That is, until you factor in the "Bradley effect". I'm expecting a Democratic win like I'm expecting a Brewer's national league title....fingers crossed and hoping.
ReplyDeleteI will be watching the Cubs and recording the debate. I have to have my priorities.
ReplyDeleteZ, mayne I've been watching closer cuz I've got time on my hands, but the national lead has little to do with the electoral collidge. Obama's lead actually is veering closer to 10 points than seve, and Kos daily tracking poll has him up 11.
ReplyDeleteAlso, and I forget where I saw this, but it was probably Great Orange Satan, the Bradley effect was studied in a recent report that says at the current time, it makes little to no diff. Remember, the Bradley effect dates from 1982. Jeez, I hadn't even pierced my ear yet.
Also, Wikipedia reports that in the primary, it looks kind of like Obama received a 'reverse Bradley effect', receiving about 3 percentage points MORE support than indicated in polling.
So people like Kos and fivethirtyeight.com are not anticipating a widespread problem with it.
Unless, of course, the republicans use it as cover for re-programming the voting machines...
Brando, there's little excuse for supporting the cubs. But then, i'm betting against the Brewers, so who am I to say?
Speaking of things that last occurred in 1982, I recall my participation during the last Brewer pennant run. Seems I was in studio inking another mylar board. What a waste of time. So it comes down to one more game for the Brew Crew. Seems they really are going to repeat 1982 again.
ReplyDeleteI think the best a desperate McCain campaign can hope for now is a Hinckley effect... Make sure it's a flesh-wound, Mr. Patsy!
ReplyDelete